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[title] => Jedina zemlja u svijetu kojoj je to uspjelo u ovom stoljeću: lani je zabilježila povećanje BDP-a od 62,3 posto
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Gvajana je na putu da petu godinu zaredom ostvari dvoznamenkasti rast BDP-a, čime će postati jedina zemlja u svijetu kojoj je to uspjelo u ovom stoljeću. Prema nedavnim procjenama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF) ova mala južnoamerička država do kraja će godine imati gospodarski rast od oko 38 posto, a očekuje se da bi taj rast u sljedećih pet godina mogao biti 115 posto - piše Iva Badanjak za Jutarnji list.
Sve se promijenilo 2015. kad je ExxonMobil našao naftu i plin nedaleko od obale Gvajane, odnosno kad je 2019. počeo iskorištavati ta ogromna nalazišta. Pretpostavlja se da će proizvodnja nafte u Gvajani s ovogodišnjih 390.000 barela dnevno porasti na 1,2 milijuna barela dnevno 2027. godine.
"Snažan rast Gvajane bio je, i nastavit će biti, potaknut brzim širenjem proizvodnje nafte nakon niza otkrića posljednjih godina", rekao je za CNBC Andrew Trahan, voditelj za istraživanje Latinske Amerike pri Fitch Solutions, te dodao da će veća proizvodnja nafte ojačati neto izvoz Gvajane. Ta je država lani zabilježila povećanje BDP-a od 62,3 posto, što je najveći rast u svijetu.
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Osim proizvodnjom nafte, gospodarski rast nekoć jedne od najsiromašnijih zemalja regije potaknut je ulaganjima u prijevoz, stanogradnju i razvoj ljudskog kapitala. Dobre rezultate pokazuju rudarstvo i šumarstvo jer se Gvajana nalazi na sjevernoj obali Južne Amerike, okružena amazonskom prašumom.
Ova bivša britanska kolonija postala je toliko privlačna da je OPEC (Organizacija zemalja izvoznica nafte) ove godine silno htio da se Gvajana pridruži kartelu, kako je izvijestio WSJ. Međutim, Gvajana je poput Groucha Marxa odlučila ne pripadati ijednom klubu koji ga želi za člana. Za to ima dobar razlog. Kada bi ušla u OPEC, bila bi pod pritiskom smanjenja proizvodnje nafte u dogovoru s drugim članovima organizacije kako bi se održalo stabilno tržište. Cilj Gvajane u ovom je trenutku maksimizirati svoja golema naftna otkrića dok još postoji globalna potražnja za naftom. "U ovom trenutku ideja je izvući što više resursa iz zemlje što je prije moguće s obzirom na to da nismo sigurni kakve ćemo mogućnosti imati u budućnosti", rekao je potpredsjednik Gvajane Bharrat Jagdeo za Wall Street Journal. OPEC je opovrgnuo napise da je pozvao Gvajanu u svoj klub.
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Međutim, pozitivna putanja rasta gospodarstva ovisit će o političkoj stabilnosti zemlje i visokim cijenama nafte. Kako se svijet okreće od fosilnih goriva prema obnovljivim izvorima energije, potražnja za naftom postat će sve manja, zbog čega je za Gvajanu važno da diverzificira svoje gospodarstvo i izbjegne tzv. "nizozemski sindrom", koji se javlja kada dođe do brzog razvoja neke zemlje kao rezultat novootkrivenih resursa, što paradoksalno šteti širem gospodarstvu. Na tom putu stoje joj tri glavne prepreke - korupcija, organizirani kriminal i - Maduro. Venezuela dio Gvajane smatra svojim i o budućnosti te regije namjerava odlučiti u nedjelju referendumom, o čemu je pisao i Jutarnji.
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Unatoč snažnom ekonomskom rastu zemlje, gvajansko društvo još je duboko podijeljeno. Oko 35 posto stanovništva živi u ekstremnom siromaštvu, s prihodom od jednog dolara dnevno. Kako je pronalazak nafte utjecao na kvalitetu života najbolje se može vidjeti u glavnom i najvećem gradu Gvajane, Georgetownu, u kojem živi oko 350.000 od ukupno 800.000 stanovništva.
Prljavština koja je prije dvije godine prekrivala većinu ulica Georgetowna nedavno je pretvorena u asfalt. Međutim, gradska arhitektura i dalje je iz viktorijanskog doba i dugo nije obnavljana. Turisti i dalje Georgetown uspoređuju s najsiromašnijim krajevima Latinske Amerike. Gabriel Herrera, venezuelanski influencer koji je nedavno posjetio Georgetown, rekao je za Bloomberg Línea da je pristup uslugama u hotelu u kojem je mogao odsjesti bio jednostavan, bez velikog luksuza ili modernizacije. "Javni prijevoz je bio nikakav, nema dobro definiranih stajališta ni modernog sustava prijevoza. Najlakše je bilo kretati se taksijem", rekao je Herrera.
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Ekonomisti upozoravaju trenutačnu gvajansku vladu da ne ponavlja greške svojih kolega u upravljanju naftnom industrijom. Stručnjaci su najviše zabrinuti da Gvajani nedostaje pravni i regulatorni okvir da bi se nosila s očekivanim priljevom bogatstva i upozoravaju da bi zbog toga moglo doći do slabljenja demokratskih institucija. "Gvajana mora nastojati ojačati svoje institucije, stvoriti mehanizme štednje i ulaganja. Mora osigurati da nafta ima pozitivan i održiv utjecaj na gospodarstvo", zaključio je venezuelanski ekonomist Luis Oliveros - piše Jutarnji list.
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page_title=Jedina zemlja u svijetu kojoj je to uspjelo u ovom stoljeću: lani je zabilježila povećanje BDP-a od 62,3 posto
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Gvajana je na putu da petu godinu zaredom ostvari dvoznamenkasti rast BDP-a, čime će postati jedina zemlja u svijetu kojoj je to uspjelo u ovom stoljeću. Prema nedavnim procjenama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF) ova mala južnoamerička država do kraja će godine imati gospodarski rast od oko 38 posto, a očekuje se da bi taj rast u sljedećih pet godina mogao biti 115 posto - piše Iva Badanjak za Jutarnji list.
Sve se promijenilo 2015. kad je ExxonMobil našao naftu i plin nedaleko od obale Gvajane, odnosno kad je 2019. počeo iskorištavati ta ogromna nalazišta. Pretpostavlja se da će proizvodnja nafte u Gvajani s ovogodišnjih 390.000 barela dnevno porasti na 1,2 milijuna barela dnevno 2027. godine.
"Snažan rast Gvajane bio je, i nastavit će biti, potaknut brzim širenjem proizvodnje nafte nakon niza otkrića posljednjih godina", rekao je za CNBC Andrew Trahan, voditelj za istraživanje Latinske Amerike pri Fitch Solutions, te dodao da će veća proizvodnja nafte ojačati neto izvoz Gvajane. Ta je država lani zabilježila povećanje BDP-a od 62,3 posto, što je najveći rast u svijetu.
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Osim proizvodnjom nafte, gospodarski rast nekoć jedne od najsiromašnijih zemalja regije potaknut je ulaganjima u prijevoz, stanogradnju i razvoj ljudskog kapitala. Dobre rezultate pokazuju rudarstvo i šumarstvo jer se Gvajana nalazi na sjevernoj obali Južne Amerike, okružena amazonskom prašumom.
Ova bivša britanska kolonija postala je toliko privlačna da je OPEC (Organizacija zemalja izvoznica nafte) ove godine silno htio da se Gvajana pridruži kartelu, kako je izvijestio WSJ. Međutim, Gvajana je poput Groucha Marxa odlučila ne pripadati ijednom klubu koji ga želi za člana. Za to ima dobar razlog. Kada bi ušla u OPEC, bila bi pod pritiskom smanjenja proizvodnje nafte u dogovoru s drugim članovima organizacije kako bi se održalo stabilno tržište. Cilj Gvajane u ovom je trenutku maksimizirati svoja golema naftna otkrića dok još postoji globalna potražnja za naftom. "U ovom trenutku ideja je izvući što više resursa iz zemlje što je prije moguće s obzirom na to da nismo sigurni kakve ćemo mogućnosti imati u budućnosti", rekao je potpredsjednik Gvajane Bharrat Jagdeo za Wall Street Journal. OPEC je opovrgnuo napise da je pozvao Gvajanu u svoj klub.
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Međutim, pozitivna putanja rasta gospodarstva ovisit će o političkoj stabilnosti zemlje i visokim cijenama nafte. Kako se svijet okreće od fosilnih goriva prema obnovljivim izvorima energije, potražnja za naftom postat će sve manja, zbog čega je za Gvajanu važno da diverzificira svoje gospodarstvo i izbjegne tzv. "nizozemski sindrom", koji se javlja kada dođe do brzog razvoja neke zemlje kao rezultat novootkrivenih resursa, što paradoksalno šteti širem gospodarstvu. Na tom putu stoje joj tri glavne prepreke - korupcija, organizirani kriminal i - Maduro. Venezuela dio Gvajane smatra svojim i o budućnosti te regije namjerava odlučiti u nedjelju referendumom, o čemu je pisao i Jutarnji.
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Unatoč snažnom ekonomskom rastu zemlje, gvajansko društvo još je duboko podijeljeno. Oko 35 posto stanovništva živi u ekstremnom siromaštvu, s prihodom od jednog dolara dnevno. Kako je pronalazak nafte utjecao na kvalitetu života najbolje se može vidjeti u glavnom i najvećem gradu Gvajane, Georgetownu, u kojem živi oko 350.000 od ukupno 800.000 stanovništva.
Prljavština koja je prije dvije godine prekrivala većinu ulica Georgetowna nedavno je pretvorena u asfalt. Međutim, gradska arhitektura i dalje je iz viktorijanskog doba i dugo nije obnavljana. Turisti i dalje Georgetown uspoređuju s najsiromašnijim krajevima Latinske Amerike. Gabriel Herrera, venezuelanski influencer koji je nedavno posjetio Georgetown, rekao je za Bloomberg Línea da je pristup uslugama u hotelu u kojem je mogao odsjesti bio jednostavan, bez velikog luksuza ili modernizacije. "Javni prijevoz je bio nikakav, nema dobro definiranih stajališta ni modernog sustava prijevoza. Najlakše je bilo kretati se taksijem", rekao je Herrera.
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Ekonomisti upozoravaju trenutačnu gvajansku vladu da ne ponavlja greške svojih kolega u upravljanju naftnom industrijom. Stručnjaci su najviše zabrinuti da Gvajani nedostaje pravni i regulatorni okvir da bi se nosila s očekivanim priljevom bogatstva i upozoravaju da bi zbog toga moglo doći do slabljenja demokratskih institucija. "Gvajana mora nastojati ojačati svoje institucije, stvoriti mehanizme štednje i ulaganja. Mora osigurati da nafta ima pozitivan i održiv utjecaj na gospodarstvo", zaključio je venezuelanski ekonomist Luis Oliveros - piše Jutarnji list.
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12. svibanj 2024 16:42
